News & Analysis

Published:  August 9, 2013

On August 1st byelections were held in five ridings where Liberal Cabinet Ministers resigned amidst the growing gas plant scandal and accusations of criminal conduct by the McGuinty Liberal government. At least four of these Liberal MPPs were pro-abortion, and quite possibly all of them.

In the end, the Liberals lost 3 out of 5 seats, which has been seen by many pundits as bad news for Liberal prospects in the next general election.   Here is a summary of the winners, by riding:

Etobicoke-Lakeshore:        Doug Holyday (Progressive Conservative)
London West:                        Peggy Sattler (New Democrat)
Ottawa South:                       John Fraser  (Liberal)
Scarborough-Guildwood:    Mitzie Hunter (Liberal)
Windsor-Tecumseh:             Percy Hatfield (New Democrat)

Although no pro-life candidate won, an analysis of the vote results suggests there may be a silver lining for London West and Ottawa South.  CLC was able to rate PC candidates in those ridings as “pro-life” and “educable”, respectively.  When we compare the byelection results to the 2011 general election in London West and Ottawa South, it suggests that voter support for the pro-life and moderately pro-life candidate is trending in the right direction…  towards a possible victory next time around.

Let’s look at London West.  When we contrast the percentage of the vote that the pro-life candidate Ali Chahbar obtained in the byelection versus what he got in the general election, we see that the gap to victory has narrowed significantly.  In  2011 Chahbar lost by a 16% point margin compared to the pro-abortion Liberal incumbent. The vote percentage was 29.4% vs. 45.6%, respectively .  Now in 2013, the gap was pinched to 9 percentage points versus the pro-abortion NDP winner. 

There is no denying that the scandals of the Liberal government played a key part in the dramatic change in fortunes for each main party. However, we see this as a sign that when you engage the pro-life vote, the results show in higher returns. And we hope that the trend will continue into the next election, resulting in a pro-life victory.
 
In Ottawa South, we saw a dramatic collapse in the victory margin of the pro-abortion Liberal MPPs.  In 2011, the rabidly pro-abortion Dalton McGuinty handily defeated the PC challenger by 15.3% points.  In the byelection, a moderately pro-life PC candidate, Matt Young, came very close to capturing the former Premier’s seat, losing by just 3.7% points, or 1,294 votes.  McGuinty’s assistant, John Fraser, who is also pro-abortion, ran for the Liberals and is the new MPP for Ottawa South. 

CLC rated Matt Young as “Educable” meaning that with education about why his rape exception for abortion is not a legitimate reason to kill an innocent child, Mr. Young could potentially be solidified in his pro-life views.  This narrowing of the gap in Ottawa South between the pro-abortion Liberal MPP and a candidate with pro-life leanings is encouraging to CLC. 

Unfortunately, CLC was not able to endorse Mr. Young or to conduct a get-out-the-vote drive for him because of his rape exception. The other problem we had was that Young refused to answer our election questionnaire directly. We were only able to obtain his views through a supporter, very late in the campaign.  Had we been able to rate him pro-life and mobilize so-con voters, would it have made the difference for Mr. Young?

In Scarborough-Guildwood and Windsor-Tecumseh, the Family Coalition Party ran pro-life candidates who represented the pro-life and pro-family position where no other supportable candidate could be identified.   They participated in all-candidates debates, and  in the case of Lee Watson in Windsor-Tecumseh, even conducted some local media interviews. 

CLC is grateful to all our supporters who participated in this election campaign, either by showing up to vote for a pro-life candidate, by volunteering on their campaign, or by sending us a report of conversations they had with a candidate about their views on the right to life.

CLC has much work to do yet in preparing for the next Ontario General Election which, given the instability of the scandal-plagued Liberal government, could be called at any time.  We look forward to even greater assistance from our supporters in helping us identify the position of candidates in all the ridings.